So, I decided to play around with Ghana’s COVID-19 case data by fitting some statistical trends to the data. A polynomial trendline analysis indicates we are on course to have about 2,000 confirmed cases within the next 7 days (R- square: 0.9765). A seven-period moving average also indicates a similar trend. Basically, we are not at the peak of the curve yet.
Two fundamental questions that require CLEAR ANSWERS at the Ghanaian government’s COVID-19 briefing this week:
- What is the total projected number of cases and its phasing (weeks, months), based on the ongoing sampling work that the various frontline agencies have undertaken?
- Have we already seen or when are we likely to see Ghana’s curve flattening as per the epidemiological models and data collected?
NB: I hope our media folks get to ask these questions. Let’s elevate the discourse and ask our politicos the tough questions.
Base data from: https://www.ghanahealthservice.org/covid19/