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So, I decided to play around with Ghana’s COVID-19 case data by fitting some statistical trends to the data. A polynomial trendline analysis indicates we are on course to have about 2,000 confirmed cases within the next 7 days (R- square: 0.9765). A seven-period moving average also indicates a similar trend. Basically, we are not at the peak of the curve yet.

Two fundamental questions that require CLEAR ANSWERS at the Ghanaian government’s COVID-19 briefing this week:
  1. What is the total projected number of cases and its phasing (weeks, months), based on the ongoing sampling work that the various frontline agencies have undertaken?
  2. Have we already seen or when are we likely to see Ghana’s curve flattening as per the epidemiological models and data collected?
NB: I hope our media folks get to ask these questions. Let’s elevate the discourse and ask our politicos the tough questions.



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