One decisive outcome from today’s presidential encounter with the media is the decision by the government not to extend the IMF deal from the original April 2018 completion date to December 2018. Only some few days ago, various highly placed government officials including the Civil Society Organisations’ Platform on Ghana IMF programme had given indications the government will ask the IMF to extend its support programme to December 2018 from April 2018 to boost efforts to stabilise the economy.
So, what has changed? I believe the answer lies in improving macroeconomic fundamentals – inflation, interest rates, a relatively stable cedi with improving balance of payments and current account, and sustained fiscal consolidation efforts. I will, however, wait for the Finance Minister’s mid-year budget review to be presented to parliament next week for further and better particulars. Some indicative H1 2017 fiscal numbers: revenue mobilisation down about 10% vs. budget estimates but expenditure has also been 21% below budget target, implying fiscal consolidation efforts yielding some results.
News stories:
—– 22 May 2017: UPDATE 1-Ghana to request extension of IMF programme to Dec 2018 http://www.reuters.com/article/ghana-imf-idUSL8N1IO34U
—– 28 June 2017: UPDATE 2-Ghana asks IMF to extend aid deal, more money expected to be sought http://www.cnbc.com/…/reuters-america-update-2-ghana-asks-i…
—– 27 June 2017: Ghana to Apply for Extension on IMF Credit Program This Week: https://www.bloomberg.com/…/ghana-to-apply-for-extension-on…
—– 18 June 2017: Ghana president says will not extend three-year IMF aid programme http://www.nasdaq.com/…/ghana-president-says-will-not-exten…
—– 17 July 2017: Platform on Ghana IMF calls for extension of aid packagehttp://www.graphic.com.gh/…/platform-on-ghana-imf-calls-for…
—–18 July 2017: IMF deal will not be extended – Akufo-Addohttps://www.ghanaweb.com/…/IMF-deal-will-not-be-extended-Ak